Trade, Diffusion and the Gains from Openness

Building on Eaton and Kortum's (2002) model of Ricardian trade, Alvarez and Lucas (2005) calculate that a small country representing 1% of the world's GDP experiences a gain of 41% as it goes from autarky to frictionless trade with the rest of the world. But the gains from openness, which includes not only trade but all the other ways through which countries interact, are arguably much higher than the gains from trade. This paper presents and then calibrates a model where countries interact through trade as well as diffusion of ideas, and then quantifies the overall gains from openness and the role of trade in generating these gains. Having the model match the trade data (i.e., the gravity equation) and the observed growth rate is critical for this quantification to be reasonable. The main result of the paper is that, compared to the model without diffusion, the gains from openness are much larger (206%-240%) and the gains from trade are smaller (13%-24%) when diffusion is included in the model. This last result is a consequence of a novel feature of the model, namely that trade and diffusion are substitutes, implying that trade generates smaller gains when diffusion is present.

A Political-Economy Theory of Trade Agreements

This paper presents a theory of trade agreements where "politics" play an central role. This stands in contrast with the standard theory, where even politically-motivated governments sign trade agreements only to deal with terms-of-trade externalities. We develop a model where governments may be motivated to sign a trade agreement both by the presence of standard terms-of-trade externalities and by the desire to commit vis-a-vis domestic industrial lobbies. The model is rich in implications. In particular, it predicts that trade agreements result in deeper trade liberalization when governments are more politically motivated (provided capital mobility is sufficiently high) and when capital can move more freely across sectors. Also, governments tend to prefer a commitment in the form of tariff ceilings rather than exact tariff levels. In a fully dynamic specification of the model, trade liberalization occurs in two stages: an immediate slashing of tariffs and a subsequent gradual reduction of tariffs. The immediate tariff cut is a reflection of the terms-of-trade motive for the agreement, while the domestic-commitment motive is reflected in the gradual phase of trade liberalization. Finally, the speed of trade liberalization is higher when capital is more mobile across sectors.

Multinationals and Linkages: An Empirical Investigation

Several recent papers have used plant-level data and panel econometric techniques to carefully explore the existence FDI externalities. One conclusion that emerges from this literature is that it is difficult to find evidence of positive externalities from multinationals to local firms in the same sector (horizontal externalities). In fact, many studies find evidence of negative horizontal externalities arising from multinational activity while confirming the existence of positive externalities from multinationals to local firms in upstream industries (vertical externalities). In this paper we explore the channels through which these positive and negative externalities may be materializing, focusing on the role of backward linkages. In particular, we criticize the common usage of the domestic sourcing coefficient as an indicator of a firm?s linkage potential and propose an alternative, theoretically derived indicator. We then use plant-level data from several Latin American countries to compare multinationals? linkage potential to that of domestic firms. We find that multinational?s linkage potential in Brazil, Chile and Venezuela is higher than for domestic firms. For Mexico, we cannot reject the hypothesis that foreign and local firms have similar linkage potential. Finally, we discuss the relationship between this finding and the conclusions that emerge from the recent empirical literature.Foreign Direct Investment, Multinational Firms, Linkages, Spillovers, Economic Development.

Innovation shortfalls

There is a common perception that low productivity or low growth is due to what can be called an"innovation shortfall,"usually identified as a low rate of investment in research and development (R&D) when compared with some high innovation countries. The usual reaction to this perceived problem is to call for increases in R&D investment rates, usually specifying a target that can be as high as 3 percent of GDP. The problem with this analysis is that it fails to see that a low R&D investment rate may be appropriate given the economy's pattern of specialization, or may be just one manifestation of more general problems that impede accumulation of all kinds of capital. How can we know when a country suffers from an innovation shortfall above and beyond the ones that should be expected given the country's specialization and accumulation patterns? This is the question the authors tackle in this paper. First, they show a simple way to estimate the R&D gap that can be explained by a country's specialization pattern, illustrating it for the case of Chile. For this country they find that although its specialization in natural-resource-intensive sectors explains part of its R&D gap, a significant shortfall remains. Second, the authors show how a calibrated model can be used to determine the R&D gap that should be expected given a country's investment in physical and human capital. If the actual R&D gap is above this expected gap, then one can say that the country suffers from a true innovation shortfall.Investment and Investment Climate,Economic Theory&Research,Trade and Regional Integration,Research and Development,Economic Growth

Externalities and Growth

Externalities play a central role in most theories of economic growth. We argue that international externalities, in particular, are essential for explaining a number of empirical regularities about growth and development. Foremost among these is that many countries appear to share a common long run growth rate despite persistently different rates of investment in physical capital, human capital, and research. With this motivation, we construct a hybrid of some prominent growth models that have international knowledge externalities. When calibrated, the hybrid model does a surprisingly good job of generating realistic dispersion of income levels with modest barriers to technology adoption. Human capital and physical capital contribute to income differences both directly (as usual), and indirectly by boosting resources devoted to technology adoption. The model implies that most of income above subsistence is made possible by international diffusion of knowledge.

Trade, Foreign Investment, and Industrial Policy

During the last three decades, developing countries have made enormous strides in opening up their protected domestic markets to international trade and foreign investment. Yet most countries have not simply opened up their markets. They have also instituted a range of policies to encourage exports, attract foreign direct investment(FDI), promote innovation, and favor some industries over others. This leads to the following question: is openness to trade and FDI alone sufficient to achieve high growth rates in developing countries? If harnessing the gains from globalization requires additional policies, can we identify them? While some types of complementary policies, such as building roads and ports, are not controversial, others are. Bhagwati's suggestion to "attract foreign funds" implies tilting incentives in favor of foreign investors, which means abandoning policy neutrality. Our goal in this chapter is to explore the popular but controversial idea that developing countries benefit from abandoning policy neutrality vis-a-vis trade, FDI and resource allocation across industries.Trade, Foreign Investment, Industrial Policy, Developing Countries

Entrepreneurship and the extensive margin in export growth : a microeconomic accounting of Costa Rica's export growth during 1997-2007

The literature on the correlation between exports and economic development runs deep into the history of economic thought and permeates policy debates. This paper studies the microeconomic structure of export growth in Costa Rica, with special emphasis on the extensive margin of trade, encompassing new exporting firms, new products, and new export markets, as well as the unit values of new versus incumbent products. The data suggest that few new firms survive the test of exporting -- more than 40 percent of firms exit export activities after one year -- and this firm turnover is associated with a steady deterioration of export unit values (prices). Furthermore, most new export products are associated with product switching by incumbent exporting firms. The typical new product introduced by incumbent firms tended to be priced at about 90 percent of the unit values of incumbent products. In contrast, the usual suspected obstacles to export growth, such as the inability of small firms to enter exporting activities or to grow their exports, appear to be important sources of export growth. In fact, the smallest exporting firms experienced the fastest growth in their export values. Some of these results are compared with those from other countries that have been examined in related literature.Economic Theory&Research,Markets and Market Access,Airports and Air Services,Microfinance,Tax Law

The role of trade in technology diffusion

This paper develops a two-country model in which trade is central to the process by which technology diffuses from the innovating country (North) to the backward country (South). Innovation in North leads to the introduction of higher-quality equipment goods that South can import only after some resources have been spent to adapt those equipment goods to the local conditions of South. Barriers to trade and policies that increase the cost of adapting equipment goods to the local environment decrease the rate of technology adoption, leading to a lower steady state relative income level in South. The model is calibrated to quantify this negative impact of barriers to trade and technology adoption on relative income levels and explore some additional implications of the model.Developing countries ; Free trade ; Technology

Import Peneteration and the Politics of Trade Protection

In this paper we reconsider a key empirical prediction generated by an important class of political-economy models of trade policy, namely that trade protection should be higher in sectors characterized by lower import penetration (we call this the little support for this prediction. In this paper we argue that the standard prediction depends critically on the assumptions that trade taxes are the only policy instruments and that the government has access to non-distortionary taxation. We analyze a model in which the government can use quotas and VERs in addition to trade taxes and raising public funds may be costly. Under a simple sufficient condition, our model predicts that the protection level increases with import penetration, both in sectors that are protected with tariffs and in sectors that are protected with quantitative restrictions.

Trade, Foreign Investment, and Industrial Policy

During the last three decades, developing countries have made enormous strides in opening up their protected domestic markets to international trade and foreign investment. Yet most countries have not simply opened up their markets. They have also instituted a range of policies to encourage exports, attract foreign direct investment(FDI), promote innovation, and favor some industries over others. This leads to the following question: is openness to trade and FDI alone sufficient to achieve high growth rates in developing countries? If harnessing the gains from globalization requires additional policies, can we identify them? While some types of complementary policies, such as building roads and ports, are not controversial, others are. Bhagwati's suggestion to "attract foreign funds" implies tilting incentives in favor of foreign investors, which means abandoning policy neutrality. Our goal in this chapter is to explore the popular but controversial idea that developing countries benefit from abandoning policy neutrality vis-a-vis trade, FDI and resource allocation across industries